Emissions reduction
The purpose of this section is not to define all the actions required to ‘fix’ the climate crisis, but to imagine what is possible and to show it is realistic to achieve. This issue has been long and well analysed and as a result, most of these actions are well proven and just need to be taken to scale.
Going into WWII by comparison there was no certainty as to the results or the likelihood of various actions success. Many things failed. If you want to find excuses not to act, you will find them. If you want to succeed you need to accept a level of risk but also a level of confidence as to what humanity can achieve.
To restore a safe climate we must first reduce the emissions which have pushed our natural systems out of balance. The sections below list the actions the experts tell us can achieve this outcome, in the following areas:
Renewable energy
Energy efficiency
Transport
Agriculture
Built environment
Behaviour, lifestyle and population
Transition to Renewable Energy
To head towards a safe climate we need to eliminate fossil fuels from the economy. That means we need to deliver rapid rollout of renewable energy to facilitate the transition. To achieve this we need:
Renewable energy (predominantly wind and solar) to grow sixfold faster than they are currently, supplying 85 % of global electricity by 2050 (IRENA). Ecofys scenarios sees 100% global supply by 2040 and Jacobson & Delucchi believe full base load coverage could be achieved by 2030 at a lower cost than fossil fuels or nuclear. 1WP; VOX
To build a Continental Renewable Energy SuperSmart Grid by 2025 (distributed renewables generation, linked into a highly flexible grid capable of transporting electricity over vast distances and in all directions). TCM
To roll out national feed-in tariffs across the globe. TCM
To erect a wind turbine or solar plant in every town with population > 1000. 1WP
To scale-up vehicle to grid systems (use electric vehicle (EV) batteries to provide decentralized storage of electrical energy as intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar come online). TCM
To close 1,000 dirty coal power plants within five years and all remaining within 10 years. 1WP
To retrofit 1,000 coal power plants with CCS within five years. 1WP
To expand the development of methane digesters (capture emissions from organic waste and convert to bio-gas and fertiliser) to ~70gW of installed capacity by 2050. DD
To maintain existing safe nuclear until renewables reach scale. TCM
To phase out fossil fuels in 10 years: End new fossil fuel exploration; ban new investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, use and production; ban new fossil fuel export projects and infrastructure; decommission all fossil fuel uses in 10 years and abolish fossil fuel subsidies. TCM
While there are many who question the feasibility of such a transition and impacts on the economy, economic analysis indicted that radical energy transition could mean a net boost in global GDP (relative to the reference case) in every year through 2050 & millions of net jobs. VOX IRENA
ISSUES WITH TRANSITION TO RENEWABLE ENERGY that must be addressed
Intermittency - solar and wind power are inherently uncontrollable. For instance, wind often blows with the greatest intensity at night, when electricity demand is lowest, and sunshine is limited in the winter. Storage, extra capacity, shifting demand times and reducing demand – are options for overcoming intermittency. TCM
Cooling and aerosols: If global fossil fuel combustion is rapidly eliminated the earth will experience a surge of global warming due to reduction in aerosols. Drastic cuts in short-lived warming agents (methane, black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons, and ground level-ozone), rapid sequestration of globally significant quantities of greenhouse gases, the use of solar radiation management cooling interventions (such as shooting aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool the planet or limit the warming surge - are options for controlling warming, but the latter are as yet unproven. TCM
Energy Efficiency
To close down power plants, even with rapid global expansion of renewables, we will need a massive global drive for energy efficiency and quite likely energy rationing until we get there. There is so much energy wastage today it will in most cases be economically beneficial to drive such a global efficiency program. The support a transition to renewable energy, energy efficiency gains must outweigh growth in demand. Gains can be achieved through:
An 80% cut in economy-wide total energy use, much of which can be accomplished through widespread electrification TCM. Energy intensity of the global economy must fall two-thirds by 2050. Improvements in energy intensity will have to accelerate from an average of 1.8 percent a year from 2010 to 2015 to an average of 2.8 percent a year through 2050. IRENA VOX
Conserving embedded energy in materials, by letting no waste go to waste - limit production of virgin aluminium, cement, iron, plastics and forest products through international agreements to restrict their use through higher price or a special global emissions tax on virgin materials. Drive public recycling. 1WP
Transport
Ban production of fossil fuelled transport modes (land, air & sea) within 10 years, reaching an average industry fleet-wide level of 0 grams/mile of all greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons (TCM). By year 20, all transport is zero CO2e. 1WP
Cash for Clunkers - retire or retrofit motor vehicle fleet (in USA $2 trillion appropriation would likely be sufficient to fund an average $5,000 - $10,000 payment for every retired or retrofitted motor vehicle). TCM 1WP
Electrify everything! Rail System for freight; Continental High-Speed Rail Network for transport; Solar-Electric bus rapid transit systems VOX. Electricity rises from 21% of total global energy consumption today to 40% - 70% by 2050 IRENA/Ecofys. “We know how to radically increase the supply of zero-carbon electricity; increasing the supply of zero-carbon liquid fuels is much more difficult. So it makes sense to move as much energy use as possible over to electricity, particularly vehicles, home heating and cooling, and lower-temperature industrial applications”. VOX TCM
Car free cities legislation - Improved pedestrian and bicycle access including bike super-highways; incentivise pedestrian and cycle infrastructure and introduce petrol rationing (in WW2 fuel in USA was rationed to 4, then 3, then 2 gallons per week). 1WP TCM
Terminate all airport and highway expansion. TCM
Curb aviation – strand half the world’s aircraft in 5 years (10% reduction per year), reduce international air travel and shift toward rail and trans-oceanic vessels, rapid development of biofuels and electronic communication. 1WP TCM
Investigate viable alternatives for drastic emission reductions in long haul trucking, aviation and shipping - e.g.: electrification / non-destructively harvested perennial biofuels / shipping refashioned to incorporate sails, rotors, kites, renewable electricity, and a modest amount of non-destructively harvested perennial biofuels. TCM
Agriculture
Establish national food policies that decouple the industry from the health & well-being of the population, to eliminate competing interests. TCM
Bind 1 Gt CO2 in the soil in 5 years (2023). Incentivize soil carbon sequestration on a large scale - establish a system to pay landowners for soil carbon sequestration efforts at a rate of $150 per tonne carbon sequestered/acre/year, or higher. 1WP TCM
Cut meat & dairy consumption in half by 2020 (as per China 50% cut in meat consumption per capita for its 1.3 billion citizens by 2030) TCM 1WP. Implementation of the best available technologies for reducing non-CO2 emissions (in meat production) and full adoption of cultured meat by 2050 (1WP), back by pricing and campaigning (e.g. WW2 Meat free Tuesday). VOX
Return global grain-producing landscapes to perennial plants in the rotation for grain production – set a long-term goal of 80% deep-rooted long-lived perennials and 20% annuals. TCM
Subsidize a shift away from environmentally catastrophic conventional industrial agriculture and toward carbon farming and agroecology. TCM
Provide education and financial support to citizen efforts to create biodiverse, carbon-sequestering gardens on public and private land, and on buildings (as green roofs).
Built Environment
Overhaul built environment: provide assistance to low-income homeowners to make the switch to energy efficiency, as well as incentives and regulations that ensure landlords follow suit; encourage shift to transit-oriented development; mandate Passive House Standard (Passivhaus) for new buildings; mandate EnerPHit Standard for renovations (EnerPHit is a certified approach similar to Passive House, but for renovations and retrofits). TCM
Behaviour, Lifestyle & Population
Education of girls and family planning - Population growth can be curbed most effectively through access to family planning and education of girls. Considered most potent long-term climate policy, delivering 102.96 Gt CO2-e by 2050. VOX DD
Transition to less meat-intensive diet - (DD) If 50 % of the world’s population restricts their diet to a healthy 2,500 calories per day and reduces meat consumption overall, as estimated 26.7 Gt of emissions could be avoided from dietary change alone. If avoided deforestation from land use change is included, an additional 39.3 Gt of emissions could be avoided, making healthy, plant-rich diets one of the most impactful solutions at a total of 66 Gt reduced. VOX 1WP
Reduce food waste – 50% reduction by 2050. Food and emissions rationing, improved storage solutions, interventions at retail and consumer levels and national food waste targets will not only reduce future food demand, but create avoided emissions equal to 26.2 Gt CO2. DD TCM
Implement emissions rationing system - all products and services that emit greenhouse gases are rationed using electronic cards (similar to credit or debit cards) and regular, equal greenhouse gas emissions allowances are freely issued to all citizens. Citizens would be able to sell their unused rations back to the government for cash. The government would then permanently retire the unused rations. TCM
Conserve for victory – reduce speed limits; encourage car sharing and pooling; incentivise employers to allow working from home and teleconferencing. TCM
Transition to less CO2-intensive transport modes (following the current modal split in Japan), less intensive use of heating and cooling (change of 1-2°C in heating and cooling reference levels) and a reduction in the use of several domestic appliances.
Launch a government and community led “shop less, live more” campaign to free up finance, manufacturing capacity and resources for critical activities & reduce (or at least stabilise), carbon-intensive activities. 1WP
Subsequent research focus on social and political barriers and strategies is vital. VOX
FOOTNOTES
The scenarios and actions outlines in this section have been derived from:
1WP: Randers, J & Gilding, P (2010). The one degree war plan. Journal of Global Responsibility, Vol. 1 No. 1 pp 170. https://paulgilding.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/one-degree-war-plan-emerald-version.pdf
DD: Hawken, P (2017). Drawdown: The most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming. www.drawdown.org, Summary of solutions by overall rank, last accessed 4 July 2019. https://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank
Ecofys: Ecofys/Navigant (2018). Energy transition within 1.5°C – A disruptive approach to 100% decarbonisation of the global energy system by 2050. White Paper. https://www.navigant.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2018/navigant2018energytransitionwithin15c.pdf
IRENA: IRENA (2018). Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. www.irena.org/publications.
Jacobson & Delucchi: Jacobson, M.Z. & Delucchi, M.A. (2009). A path to sustainable energy by 2030. Scientific Scientific American Magazine. Nov, pp. 39, 42-43. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030/
TCM: Silk, E (2016) The Climate Mobilization Victory Plan. Published by The Climate Mobilization August 2016, revised March 2019. https://www.theclimatemobilization.org/victory-plan
VOX: Roberts, D (2018). What genuine, no bullshit ambition on climate change would look like – how to hit the most stringent targets, with no loopholes. Published by www.vox.com. Updated Oct 8 2018. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/7/17306008/climate-change-global-warming-scenarios-ambition