As we see emerging today, the NGO part of the broadly-based climate movement will become dominated by new NGOs, like Extinction Rebellion, The Climate Mobilization and the Greta Thunberg inspired School Strikes movement. They will be like the disruptive Teslas to the incumbent NGOs’ General Motors, seeing opportunity and demanding change in ways that the old guard see as ‘not realistic’ or ‘too risky’.

This means these new players will most likely grow and become more and more influential - and smart philanthropists will support them. They will also attract a younger generation with fresh eyes who can see through society’s endless excuses for the lack of action. They will be attracted to the simple logic of the Climate Emergency – “we face an existential risk that will ruin my future and we have the choice to act to stop it”.

This will be an extraordinarily powerful movement – driven by deep emotional commitment and as a result bold and forceful activism. They can see through the political arguments and corporate excuses for delays and will do whatever it takes to overwhelm resistance. As Greta Thunberg argued: 

“We must admit that we do not have this situation under control. We must admit that we are losing this battle. We must stop playing with words and numbers, because we no longer have time for that.”

“For too long the people in power have gotten away with basically not doing anything to stop the climate and ecological breakdown. They have gotten away with stealing our future and selling it for profit. But we young people are waking up. And we promise we will not let you get away with it anymore.” (our emphasis) 

In the end groups like Extinction Rebellion and the School Strikes movement, will most likely have to shut down cities all over the world thereby forcing, through mass protests by millions of people, a day of reckoning. 

They will not tolerate the prevarication or tokenism displayed so far. As Greta Thunberg said: “Adults keep saying we owe it to the young people to give them hope, but I don’t want your hope. I want you to act as if the house is on fire, because it is.”

This is not like other recent social movements. These young people are highly motivated and feel they have nothing to lose. They accurately see their own future as a deeply scary one in a collapsing civilisation if they fail. They will not go quietly.

Why civil disobedience protests are so important

The role of these protests will be key, perhaps the single most important role in a complex system and process of change. People often dismiss civil disobedience based protests as not representative of the broader public. This is a profound misunderstanding of the nature of social change. 

Of course, even if there are millions in the streets of every major city protesting, they will be a small fraction of the population. But this can only be understood as part of the broader change process then underway. Such movements, especially when driven by young people, will force the reality of the climate emergency into playgrounds, lunch rooms, class rooms and lounge rooms across the globe. 

As young people wake up to the crisis we are facing they will demand more from their parents, their communities, their financial institutions, their religious leader and their elected officials and decisions makers – change will then happen. This is how systems tip.

But people in the streets don’t write policy, they don’t direct the military and they don’t invest the trillions of dollars needed to transform the economy.

So, in the end that means the elites will make the decision to shift us to emergency mode. The process will be chaotic, messy and political. One where governments and individual political leaders feel pressured - and feel guilty for their past failures. They will in this way be forced into action by the people in the streets. But, critically, they will be increasingly supported to do so by powerful members of the elites in business, defence and investment who then recognise both their moral duty and their self interest in getting on board. 

Why would the elites turn? 

Because being the captain of the ship loses its appeal pretty fast when the ship starts sinking….

Response of the established climate change movement

The established climate movement will be challenged by this process on many levels. For a start they have spent 30 years focusing on what was earlier described as ‘Accelerated Incrementalism’ [FN12]. The rationale for such an approach, especially in the 1990’s was persuasive, and judgement in hindsight is easy. 

The movement now has to accept that the approach failed. Both greenhouse gas emissions and warming – the only measures that matter – have never been higher. However, acknowledging failure and embracing a new disruptive force in the climate movement – one with a very different strategy of ‘Emergency Transformation’ [FN13], will not be easy.

The whole movement including these new players will be challenged by the inevitable, strong response of society’s security and defence apparatus, who will have to engage deeply to maintain global order. They will likely themselves become advocates for a climate emergency in order to reduce risk. The generally left-wing leaning climate movement – especially the new more radical players – will struggle seeing such advocates more associated with the right leaning politics.

Footnotes

[FN12] The belief that our current systems and policy processes along with our current market and commercial institutions would deliver the change.

[FN13] Tough and challenging actions that will severely disrupt the status quo and ultimately transform the systems that have caused and are accelerating the climate emergency.