Resourcing and coordinating emergency mobilisation
A Climate Emergency is not a rhetorical call for accelerated climate action - it’s a call for a revolutionary transformation of the economy. There is simply no other way to get the job done. This task will require strong governance and state intervention to ensure equity and the fair delivery of the outcomes and actions described in the previous sections. That does not mean government does everything, but it does mean rules and control, taxes and direction of the economy. As such, we need to consider:
Feasibility
Are these radical measures ‘realistic’? There are two parts to this question:
1. Is it technically and economically possible to rapidly reduce global GHG concentrations to a level that will bring warming back to 1-1.5 degrees?
2. Is an agreement to achieve such a plan politically conceivable?
The answer to the first question is yes. The conclusion of several analyses indicates that based on current knowledge and technology, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees with limited overshoot is completely achievable at an acceptable cost. It would be very disruptive to parts of the economy and to many people, and it would require considerable sacrifice, but it certainly ‘solves the problem’.
On the second question, it would require a level of mobilisation and global cooperation similar to that of a world war, but society is capable of – and critically, experienced in – such mobilisations when it finally decides to solve a problem. The dominant view is now emerging that climate change threatens the viability of civilisation and the collapse of the global economy - a crisis response will soon follow and society’s framework will change from ‘what is politically possible’ to Churchill’s ‘what is necessary’.
The most challenging area of achieving ‘what is necessary’ on the climate emergency is global distribution of actions, costs and benefits. Like in any war, this will inevitably end up as a compromise between real power, equity and what can be achieved. Key elements required are outlined below:
Governance and Leadership
Establish a multinational command structure (‘Climate Emergency Command’) – controlled by those countries participating in the emergency response. Combine the expertise and the lessons of institutions like the IMF (for professional advice on macroeconomics), the IPCC (for advice on climate issues) and various multi-national military commands. The climate war command would have a variety of powers including the authority to ensure that funds are distributed according to a harmonised global strategy, and to impose equivalent tariffs on imports from any countries that do not agree to the tax. 1WP
Create the global ‘Climate Stability Commission’ to determine the CO2 concentration required to stabilise the climate as the science develops, to investigate and agree necessary geo-engineering projects to achieve stabilisation, and to monitor their implementation. 1WP
At a national level, governments will need to establish new agencies and institutions designed to coordinate and guide the rapid response to the climate emergency and restructuring of the economy. The agencies must operate on a transparent, inclusive, and fair basis. TCM
Funding and Resources
As in WWII, global government should mobilize their considerable financing powers to make ample funds available for all aspects of the Climate Emergency response.
Introduce carbon tax of US$100 per tonne of CO2 levied at source on all fossil fuels (i.e. coal, oil and gas) - start at US$20/tonne in year 1 and increasing by US$20/tonne per year over a five-year duration (Note: VOX says uniform carbon tax should apply to all regions and sectors). This would initially raise some US$800 billion per annum, increasing to US$1,900 billion per annum in year 5. This would be around 1-3 per cent of GDP at the time (less than the amounts put into stabilise the global economy during the finance crisis in the Fall of 2008). Tax raised should be used for two purposes: to fund the emergency response (i.e. the development and implementation of the various actions described above) and to alleviate the resulting hardship – primarily among the poor (globally speaking). 1WP
Economic mobilization – will direct the collective force of industry away from consumerism and toward a singular national purpose (e.g. WW2. just four days after the bombing of Pearl Harbour, the auto industry was ordered to cease production of civilian vehicles). Profit-seeking behaviour is either subordinated to or channelled toward the national mission. It is characterized by large-scale deficit spending (spending more than taxes collected), sweeping command-and-control regulations, increased taxation in order to control inflation and re-direct private sector activity, and strong government controls over the distribution of raw materials and basic goods. Although corporations can play a constructive role in mobilization, they do not drive the change process. The government does. Done well, economic mobilization has many benefits, including increased equality, full employment, and increased attention to the importance of cultivating every person. TCM
Mobilising Defence Forces
With its enormous resources and institutional understanding of the logistics of war mobilization, the defence agencies can play an important role in the Climate Emergency response including: Addressing their own emissions; converting defence engineering and manufacturing to emergency response manufacturing (e.g.: wind & solar components, advanced batteries, geo-engineering), redirect spending from nuclear weapon modernisation towards a climate emergency response (U.S program worth about $1 trillion). TCM
FOOTNOTES
The scenarios and actions outlines in this section have been derived from:
1WP: Randers, J & Gilding, P (2010). The one degree war plan. Journal of Global Responsibility, Vol. 1 No. 1 pp 170. https://paulgilding.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/one-degree-war-plan-emerald-version.pdf
TCM: Silk, E (2016) The Climate Mobilization Victory Plan. Published by The Climate Mobilization August 2016, revised March 2019. https://www.theclimatemobilization.org/victory-plan